China vs Japan. Who would Win?

Discussion in 'East Asia & The Pacific' started by Patriot1776, Feb 27, 2016.

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  1. Patriot1776

    Patriot1776 2nd Lieutenant

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    Scenario:

    Medium to large scale protests begin in China calling for a more democratic governmental system and better economic management that focuses on stable and sustainable growth. In order to divert attention from these issues the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) stages a false flag operation near the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands in the East China Sea where they sink their own coast guard ship and blame it on Japan. The Japanese government reacts with shock and denies that they were responsible while the CCP uses this event as a Casus Belli. China immediately declares war on Japan using the sinking of its coast guard ship and the Japanese occupation of the Diaoyu islands as an excuse.

    b481affce9a32b7d260e06e2d5b5ce6c.jpg


    Chinese Objectives:

    -Swiftly secure the Diaoyu islands
    -Prevent an American Intervention
    -Neutralize Japan's ability to reclaim the islands
    -Avoid sanctions
    -Make America's security agreements look like a joke.

    china_amphib.jpg


    Japanese Objectives:

    -Defend the Senkaku Islands.
    -Draw the U.S. into the war.
    -Form an East Asian anti China Alliance
    -Neutralize Chinese power projection into the SCS and East China Sea.

    4e3adde9187ee.image.jpg
     
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  2. Patriot1776

    Patriot1776 2nd Lieutenant

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  3. Pathfinder

    Pathfinder Lieutenant Colonel

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    Blue = achievable
    Red = not achievable
    Orange = maybe

    Chinese Objectives:

    -Swiftly secure the Diaoyu islands
    -Prevent an American Intervention
    -Neutralize Japan's ability to reclaim the islands

    -Avoid sanctions
    -Make America's security agreements look like a joke.

    Japanese Objectives:

    -Defend the Senkaku Islands.
    -Draw the U.S. into the war.
    -Form an East Asian anti China Alliance
    -Neutralize Chinese power projection into the SCS and East China Sea.

    Geographically China has big advantage over Japan, they have more military resources closer to the Islands than Japan does, this means that they can have a large force in the area in no time whereas it would take e japan a longer time to get there. I think the Chinese could easily take over the islands. They can also fire massive amounts of anti ship missiles at a Japanese fleet, the Chinese navy is no joke either.

    I am neutral on whether or not the US would jump in on the side of Japan. Would our war weary public be willing to help Japan? Would our government react to China over a few islands when Japanese existence is not threatened? If the US were to not react its alliances around the world would not be taken serious, this would be a major dent in us foreign policy. The economic costs of a war with China would be huge. I think China would feel safe trying to get the senkaku's.

    I think China could face sanctions from the international community but they would not be significant because everyone has massive amounts of trade with China.

    I don't think Japan could prevent the Chinese from taking over the Senkaku's, they need better offensive weapons and they need a nuclear deterrent. Without Nuclear China thinks it can do what it wants.

    If China were to attack Japan (the strongest country in east asia after China) then I think that other east and south eastern asian countries would band together to try and prevent more Chinese aggression.

    I don;t think Japan could neutralize China's military and I don't think that would be on of their objectives.

    I wonder if the Rand corporation has a paper on a scenario like this.
     
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  4. Vergennes

    Vergennes Captain Staff Member Ret. Military International Mod

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    The probability that a conflict between Japan and China wouldn't drag the US is very low,what would be the US's credibility toward its allies bound by defence treaties if China attacks an ally of the US ?
    -
    The Japanese defence forces might be smaller than China's but has has a qualitative advantage over China.
    -
    The majority of Chinese weapons systems are old,according to some sources,out of China's 7580 tanks,only ~450 are "near modern",502 of china's aircrafts of about 1321 are deemed capable,the rest date to refurbished soviet planes from the 70's (Or cheap copies),only half of the submarines of China have been built within the past twenty years. !
    -
    On the other hand,Japan has been supplied with advanced military hardware from the Americans.

    In the coming years,Japan will buy/receive ;

    -New anti missile destroyers (AEGIS)
    -Submarines
    -Amphibious vehicles
    -UAVs
    -V22s
    -Hawkeyes
    -Fighter planes (F-35s)

    And the list can continue !
    -
    The F-35 gives an advantage to Japan,because it could strike the Liaoning (Or any other Chinese ship ) with joint strike missiles from a safe distance of nearly~290km.
    The F-35 would be also able to detect and engage China's main aircraft, the J-15 (A cheap copy of Russian/Soviet aircrafts) before the Japanese F35 is even detected !
    -
    Japan is very well protected by a missile defense systems equipped with SM-3 missiles,and patriots PAC3.

    Japan could be even more powerful if their constitution would allow them to also be an offensive force,not only defensive. (It has been modified lately no ?)
    -
    I am clearly sure that (If we avoid quantity,where Japan has no chance to match China!) Japan has by far the strongest,Navy,the strongest Army,the strongest Air force in the far east. @Technofox @Pathfinder @Patriot1776
     
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  5. Pathfinder

    Pathfinder Lieutenant Colonel

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    Right China has a lot of outdated gear but I think with area denial they wouldn't have a problem securing the senkaku's just because of geography. They would lose a lot of troops trying to do so but they could still do it. Japans military bases are far away, the closest ones are in Okinawa, where as China has more bases closer to the fight.


    Unknown.jpg



    china_major_air_units_2009.jpg

    China could also start anti war protests in Japan, I am sure that a lot of Japanese liberals wouldn't mind going by the Chinese story of Prime Minister Abe sinking a Chinese ship. I am sure the Chinese already have preparations like this.
     
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  6. Falcon

    Falcon Major Staff Member Social Media Team

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    Gabrieal is right, the Japanese have newer toys than the Chinese. They also have a robust air and ballistic missiles defense system that can drastically reduce the effectiveness of China's ballistic missiles. For arguments sake lets say that the US doesn't fully enter the war on the side of Japan, we would sure as hell shoot down Chinese missiles, and we would sure as hell give Japan all of the equipment it needs. But I am 99% certain that we would come to Japan's aid. If we abandoned them then East Asia would be solidly under China's control.
     
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  7. James David

    James David Officer Candidate

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    I agree with you @Falcon and @Gabriel92 , If we don't come to Japan's aid, that would send a bad message to our allies to whom we have existing treaties. We will definitely loose our foothold in this volatile part of the world. This war will not just be in East Asia but will spread in the South East. If that happens we loose the PI and thus end our presence there. Then that land downunder will be up for grabs. but no worries....

    upload_2016-5-26_10-26-9.png
     
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  8. Pathfinder

    Pathfinder Lieutenant Colonel

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    The Philippines is the perfect country for China to attack first if it wants to test how serious we are with upholding our treaty agreements. Once we break the first treaty and don't come to someones aid then our allies will drastically change their strategies. They may create a regional anti china alliance and begin to spend significantly more on their militaries.

    Imagine if China coordinated with Russia. Imagine if China attacked the Philippines and at the same time Russia attacked the Baltic states. What would we do then?
     
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  9. Falcon

    Falcon Major Staff Member Social Media Team

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    The way were are positioned now we couldn't do much but if we bolster our Forces in the Baltics and Poland we could avoid that scenario. I think China is most interested in taking Taiwan. If the US was to react and toughen up in East Asia then they would have at least accomplished their biggest objective which is the unification of Taiwan with mainland communist China. They would not risk something in the beginning on the Philippines.
     
  10. Cossack25A1

    Cossack25A1 1st Lieutenant

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    China would deal first with Taiwan because aside from "re-unification", the PLAN can station their ships there and eventually have Guam at their gun sights without going through the PH.
     
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