Chinese military may retaliate against US-PH "provocations" in SCS.

Discussion in 'East Asia & The Pacific' started by Cossack25A1, Jul 8, 2016.

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  1. Cossack25A1

    Cossack25A1 1st Lieutenant

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    Sea provocation by Philippines, US will meet firm countermeasure
    Source:Global Times
    Published: 2016-7-8 0:03:00



    As the award in the international arbitration case about the South China Sea dispute approaches, the US is flexing more muscles toward China recently. The US Navy Times reported on Wednesday that three US destroyers had been quietly patrolling near some of China-controlled islands and islets, including Huangyan Island, in the South China Sea for the past two weeks. On Wednesday, according to the report, the Navy had sent seven ships to the region, including one aircraft carrier, two cruisers and four destroyers.

    So far, Washington has deployed two aircraft carriers in or near the South China Sea, which is seen as sending a strong signal to China. Besides, China has also launched a military drill around the Xisha Islands, which is deemed by the outside as a countermeasure.

    Former Chinese state councilor Dai Bingguo said recently in Washington that the award will be nothing but a piece of paper. It means that China will stick to the principle of non-participation and non-acceptance. After the arbitration result is released, the South China Sea dispute will become the most discussed topical issue in the world, but the squabbles won't make a real difference.

    Whether there will be an escalation of tensions in the South China Sea depends on if the US incites the Philippines to take aggressive actions, or even if the US itself steps forward. If the US and the Philippines act on impulse and carry out flagrant provocation, China will not take a single step back. If the US and the Philippines scheme to play some tricks around Ren'ai Reef, China could tow away or sink the "stranded" old ship, and resolve the standoff once and for all.

    Beijing should warn Manila that the crisis on Huangyan Island was caused by the Philippine navy chasing and capturing Chinese fishing boats and fishermen. China took the chance and completely controlled the island. If the Philippines dares to provoke China on the strength of the US, China does not need to restrain itself any more, but can turn Huangyan Island into a military outpost to counter more provocations from the Philippines and the US.

    All these years China has been reacting to the new circumstances in the South China Sea. If the Philippines and Vietnam didn't conduct reclamation construction on the islands it occupied, China would probably have not expanded the maritime features it controls. The pattern of interaction between China and the Philippines has been set: China won't actively escalate tensions if Manila does not take risks, but if it does, China will fight back.

    The US won't whole-heartedly support the Philippines in the risky cause. It will adjust the intensity of confrontation after considering the big picture of the Sino-US strategic game. Manila will only be a fifth wheel, and could be sacrificed by the US.

    Will the South China Sea dispute encounter a full escalation of tensions? It is up to the US and the Philippines to give an answer.

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    Link -> http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/992950.shtml

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    It is quite funny and frustrating on how the Chinese can spin a story, drawing the victim card despite that the said captured fishermen are fishing illegally in Philippine EEZ and even inside Philippine waters, and taking endangered species; are we not allowed to enforce our laws, specially if these illegal Chinese fishermen are inside Philippine waters?

    That author in Global Times surely sounds like those Chinese members in PDF, only less extreme and doesn't include the words "we will nuke you."

    If the Chinese turns Scarboroough shoal into a military base, the PLA basically has a "gun" pointed towards the Philippine capital of Manila. And if they try to remove (or worse, sink) BRP Sierra Madre, it will be an act of war because the status of BRP Sierra Madre is vague, but it has PH marines and if they die because of Chinese actions, then it is an attack against the Philippines... unless president Duterte kowtows to the Chinese government.
     
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  2. Pathfinder

    Pathfinder Lieutenant Colonel

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    I think with articles of this nature they are both appealing to their local population but also trying to convince researchers and analysts who study the region that it is best for the US and Philippines to step out of the way and let China have its way. People reading these articles are also working at DC think tanks, people reading these give advice to US officials etc. so by reading things like that they may think "hey, that makes sense. Maybe its best if we don't get involved with that old ship stuck on a reef."
     
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  3. Cossack25A1

    Cossack25A1 1st Lieutenant

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    I suspect that what China is after in this sea region is something else; I mean the resources there such as oil, fish and corals, along with the goal of regional domination over the Asia-Pacific to expel the US may be both secondary and the reason why the Chinese want to control that sea area is because billions of dollar worth of shipping that goes through there and goes to China.

    If they control the sea lanes, most of the shipping will go to China and they may use this to threaten to block the sea lanes of trades to countries that are not in good terms with China (i.e. Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam).
     
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