Have the Worlds Rising Powers Fallen?

Discussion in 'World Affairs' started by Pathfinder, Jul 8, 2016.

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  1. Pathfinder

    Pathfinder Lieutenant Colonel

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    Here is an article that says that the worlds rising powers are not what they were hyped up to be. Do you all agree?

    The World’s Rising Powers Have Fallen

    BRICS_leaders_2012.jpg

    BY SUZANNE NOSSELSuzanne Nossel is executive director of the Pen American Center and was formerly deputy assistant secretary of state for international organizations at the U.S. State Department.

    JULY 6, 2016

    There will be no bloc of “emerging economies” rising up to challenge the Western order. But what comes next may be more chaotic and dangerous.

    As analysts and scholars compose their first drafts of the history of the Obama administration’s foreign policy, a chapter will surely address what were once dubbed “rising powers,” a group that included Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and others. But the optimism of 2008 — when the so-called “BRICS” were ascendant, ready to reshape global economics and politics — has turned to doubt. The impeachment trial of Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff and a Russian doping scandal that only a Soviet could be proud of are just the latest unmistakable signs that a surge of newly powerful nations collectively remaking the world stage is hardly a sure thing. A few years ago, a mortal rupture in Europe would have invited crowing over “the demise of the West and the rise of the Rest.” Now, the picture is more complicated: Europe is in disarray, as are several of the might-have-been beneficiaries of the continent’s turmoil.

    Rest is here:
    http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/06...ussia-china-south-africa-economics-recession/

    What does everyone here think, will these powers rise again in the future as they did back in '08? Can they work together or do they overlapping interests?

    Whats with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization?

    Pakistan to join
    http://indianexpress.com/article/wo...ation-new-paths-energy-infrastucture-2856976/

    India likely to join
    http://indianexpress.com/article/in...operation-organisation-within-a-year-2852341/

    Iran may join
    http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/ori...i-cooperation-organization-sco-accession.html

    Turkey may join
    http://www.dailysabah.com/diplomacy/2016/06/30/shanghai-five-offer-turkey-full-membership

    00221917e13e140221740a.jpg
     
  2. AMDR

    AMDR Captain Staff Member Administrator

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    I still remember back in 2010 hearing about the whole BRICS and Emerging Economies hype in the wake of the US Great Recession. It definitely seemed like there was about to be a great shift in the international order, and maybe there still is, just in a slightly different way than we thought.

    Predicting large fundamental changes such as the ones predicted in the late 2000s/early 2010s is always an extremely hard business. Looking back we can see why we did think about in that way, but also see the mistakes we made in estimating the potential of the emerging economies. As they say, "Hindsight is usually 20/20" and this appears no different. If anything it is a learning experience.

    IMO the real threat to the existing international order never came countries like India or Brazil because they never (at least to my knowledge) were seriously opposed to it. It always came from China and Russia. They, unlike the others, could make huge geopolitical gains from the rise of an international order that opposed the western one. Whether they can pull something like this off is largely based on their economic performance of the next decade in my opinion.

    Can they recover from their recent slumps in economic growth? I don't know and that is a question way out of my league. But what is known for sure is that they need large structural reforms. Like right now.

    China especially. When you look at the debt they have built up over the past 8 years, it definitely turns some heads. Especially when put into context like this:
    20160312_woc996_2.png


    Now, I'm not saying that China is 100% for sure going to have a debt crisis, but thinking that they are somehow going to deleverage their economy on the scale necessary without some pain is a joke. And as we saw with some of their policy reactions to their stock market crash last summer, the head people in Beijing aren't the smartest bunch. This, coupled with an impending demographic crisis and an inability to reform quickly, could put China a tough position.

    Russia, a country already with a smaller population and economy than the United States also suffers from demographic and economic problems, which doesn't bode well for a country trying to be seen a long term alternative to a western-led international order.

    India is probably the safest bet currently. They seem to be the only emerging market right now posting solid growth rates and ironically are probably the most pro-western emerging market economy right now, as seen by the growing relationship between it and the US.

    The next couple decades are going to be very interesting. There is no point trying to predict what may come out of this, as we have already seen in the article above how the world can change on dime from current projections.

    As for the SCO, I have no idea what to make of them but I think they are more geared to Central Asian security and fighting regional terrorism more than it is opposing a US-led alliance.
     
  3. Spectre

    Spectre 2nd Lieutenant

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    Few points to note

    - China will overtake US on nominal terms at some point during the next decade i.e. 2020-2030. They are already ahead on PPP basis.
    - Quality of growth in countries like India and China are suspect with wealth being concentrated in hands of few.
    - International order by which I mean security alliances like NATO and monetary organizations like Bretton Woods are likely to maintain status-quo for foreseeable future.
    - Chinese initiatives like OBOR and AIIB will provide an alternate sources of infra and developmental funding in Africa, Asia and S. America increasing the economic leverage but except for Africa will contested by existing orders.
    - At some point China has to apply the breaks or risk over heating. Already they have made risky bets in security adverse countries.

    In conclusion only threat to status -quo is China but unless China combines with equally formidable developing country like India it would be difficult to make a substantial to pose a challenge.
     
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  4. Pathfinder

    Pathfinder Lieutenant Colonel

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    I think in the longterm Russia is the biggest threat to western hegemony. The country itself may not become one alone like it did during the cold war but I think they have the tools to deem western security alliances useless. Russia could take a shot at the Baltic's to see if NATO backs down, if NATO backs down then Russia has called our bluff. This allows the Chinese to take military action against countries like Taiwan and the Philippines because they know that America isn't serious about defending its allies.
     
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  5. Technofox

    Technofox That Norwegian girl Staff Member Ret. Military Developer

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    What exactly does the SCO do? Is it just another Russian Gentleman's Club like the Eurasian Economic Community and CTSO?

    [​IMG]

    I know the SCO actually does do counter-terrorism training operations, but how closely do they cooperate when not doing such high-profile training drills? Are they just for show? A show of unity on the surface, with little cooperation when not trying to show off? Or is there actually something more to the SCO?

    Maybe. This is commonly thought, and I've been guilty of thinking it too, but China lost ground last year to the US economy and as the US recovers, tentatively, and China rebalances to a lower growth rate - or dies trying to preserve the old ways - it's going to be ceding even more to the US.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...n-race-to-pass-u-s-as-world-s-biggest-economy

    [​IMG]

    Will they overtake the US in nominal terms to go hand-in-hand with their PPP status? I won't even hazard a guess, but it's an uphill battle.
     
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