How Does Brexit Affect Britain's Security Posture?

Discussion in 'UK Defence Forum' started by Pathfinder, Jun 25, 2016.

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  1. Pathfinder

    Pathfinder Lieutenant Colonel

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    NATO Summit Special Series: United Kingdom

    british-army.jpg

    In the short run, not much will change for NATO. The UK will fulfill its planned contributions to the new efforts to be announced at the Warsaw summit. The package will build on the achievements of the Wales summit with an Enhanced Forward Presence.

    Beyond Warsaw, however, the British vote to quit the European Union raises a host of longer-term strategic questions for the transatlantic community that could fundamentally transform the Alliance.

    First, will the UK become more isolated and inward looking?

    It is hard to imagine the UK emerging from this process with the vision, the capacity for global leadership, the confidence in its foreign and security policies, and the conventional military power that have given it its central role in NATO.

    Will London’s next government prioritize NATO?

    The next Government may launch a new SDSR, and consider a global or a more Atlanticist defense posture. It may even choose to backslide on filling capability gaps or undermine progress on NATO-EU cooperation. Vulnerable allies are pointing to new maritime challenges and an increasing risk of an anti-access area denial threat environment. Depending on how the next Government chooses to orient itself, and until the UK receives its P8 aircraft (to be ordered this summer), it will have nothing to contribute on one of the alliances key capability shortfalls.

    Finally, what does the future hold for Scotland and Trident?

    An independent Scotland will raise questions about the future of Scotland’s European relationships, and about the future of the UK as a nuclear power. Modernizing Trident is already a sensitive issue. A new base south of the border is likely to be too costly, and negotiating an agreement with Scotland may be politically impossible. If allies and adversaries start to question the UK’s nuclear deterrent, a fundamental building block of NATO will be undermined. These debates will become central for European defense and for NATO’s future.

    More here:

    http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/nato-summit-special-series-united-kingdom
     
  2. Technofox

    Technofox That Norwegian girl Staff Member Ret. Military Developer

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    Trident is likely out of Scotland, especially if they opt for independence.

    [​IMG]

    But the UK is simply too important to let itself slip into military irrelevancy and isolation, and too well trained and equipped not to do anything with those forces. It has commitments in the Middle East and Africa, even if it isn't all too concerned with Eastern Europe, but that's not solely a problem with the UK. A lot of Western Europe doesn't feel it should be covering for Eastern Europe, NATO or not. All it takes is one terrorist incident to remind leaders in London of this too - to remind them the UK is in a position that few are and can effect world events in a way greater then most can dream of. The UK is too important militarily. For a time I suspect there'll be some confusion, so waffling on commitments, and then everything will settle down again.

    Let's all remember that being part of the EU doesn't mean you're part of NATO - Finland and Sweden aren't - but being out of the EU doesn't mean you forgo NATO as well. The UK, like Norway, can still contribute to NATO without being part of the EU and I suspect it will.

    Right now there's uncertainty, but that wanes overtime and people realize not much has actually changed, especially as the UK isn't going to isolate itself from the world or more locally, Europe. They'll negotiate investment pacts, products and food safety standards, export and import regulations, heck, even immigration treaties and life probably wont look too different from when the UK was actually still part of the EU.

    Militarily they'll be as participating as they've always been.

    And if not, then France, welcome to the position as #1 US ally in Europe.
     
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  3. Pathfinder

    Pathfinder Lieutenant Colonel

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    Yup, I don't think anything will change in relation to NATO unless UKIP some how become the leading party in Britain some time in the future. From what I can gather in YouTube comments and from their politicians they like the idea of concentrating on the Common Wealth and not worrying to much about Europe because it just puts them into unnecessary confrontation with Russia. In their view it is a waste of resources.

    With Trident I can see serious issues arise if Scotland was too break away or attempt to but I think the British public could be convinced to keep the nuclear deterrent option open.

    Here is an article that explains the different political parties positions on Trident.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/gen...-2015-How-each-party-compares-on-Trident.html

    BTW does anyone know how you can break away from the UK? Can't the British Army just march in and take full control of Scotland and prevent independence?

    @Blue Marlin ^
     
  4. chazza

    chazza Officer Candidate

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    they could but if a legal referendum has been held it would just be a military occupation that the British public has no interest in maintaining. even still Scotland wouldnt just declare its self independent there would be years of negations about who gets what, the new border etc be similar to brexit situation.
     
  5. YarS

    YarS Lieutenant Colonel

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    I think US knows. There was such situation in North American colonies.
    Of course, British Army can march, but Scotland fighters for freedom can meet them.
     
  6. Kat

    Kat 1st Lieutenant

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    A weakened, fractured Isles:evil:?


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    What? No we Norwegians aren't scheming anything|Cat|.
     
  7. YarS

    YarS Lieutenant Colonel

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    O RLY?
     
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