How likely is a conflict in East Asia?

Discussion in 'East Asia & The Pacific' started by Falcon, Nov 4, 2015.

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How likely is a war in East Asia in the near feature (next 5 years)?

  1. Highly likely

  2. Likely

  3. Not very likely

  4. Remote Possibility

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  1. Falcon

    Falcon Major Staff Member Social Media Team

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    Background:

    Over the past two weeks tensions between the U.S and China have been rising in the South China sea as a result of territorial disputes between China and its U.S aligned neighbors. China has warned that a mistake could occur in the region involving U.S and Chinese military units which could spark a war. [1] Chinese and Japanese coast guard ships often clash over the Diaoyu-Senkaku Islands which is another flash point in east asia and could potentially escalate into a full blown conflict. [2] Another flash point is the issue over fishing boats-territory between China and Vietnam as well as the dispute over an oil rig. [3] Problems between China the Philippines and Indonesia also exist which add to the growth of the east asian powder keg.

    So what do you all think, will there be a conflict in east asia in the near future?

    @Gabriel92 @AMDR @F-22 @Webmaster @Sven @Technofox @T-123456 @Atilla @superkaif @Cossack25A1


    1. http://www.thedailybeast.com/articl...erous-war-talk-about-the-south-china-sea.html
    2. http://nationalinterest.org/feature/3-ways-china-japan-could-go-war-13202
    3. http://thediplomat.com/2015/07/china-steps-up-harassment-of-vietnamese-fishermen/

    Here are some useful maps for reference:

    South_China_Sea_claims.jpg

    2905_spratly_map_729.png

    south-china-sea-710x439.jpg
     
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  2. T-123456

    T-123456 Captain Staff Member International Mod

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    Chinese provocations could lead to a confrontation but i dont think China would risk a war against the US or Japan.
     
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  3. F-22

    F-22 2nd Lieutenant

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    I don't think a conflict will occur, but miscalculations are always possible.
     
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  4. Falcon

    Falcon Major Staff Member Social Media Team

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    Everyone in that region depends on each other economically and to some extent geographically. If the region gets destabilized trade will grind to halt thus negatively effecting all nations in the area. The whole world would do its best to prevent a conflict in east asia as many countries are reliant on goods from that region and they are reliant on selling goods to that region.

    A cool thing to think about is that the U.S allied countries in those regions have problems with each other regarding maritime boundaries. China could technically pick them off one by one. I highly doubt any of the countries in that region would be willing to go to war for the other. China could launch an attack when the U.S is bogged down in another region or has economic problems.
     
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  5. T-123456

    T-123456 Captain Staff Member International Mod

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    That is highly unlikely,the US(Obama) already gave up the ME and econmic wise,its a better option for the US to shift its interest to the ASEAN region.
    Why else would Russia and Iran have any chance of meddling/interfering in the ME?
     
  6. Cossack25A1

    Cossack25A1 1st Lieutenant

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    No conflict will occur in this part of the world despite the saber-rattling, though like many previous wars, it would only take a rather "unintelligent" move from any of the claimants to turn the territorial disputes into a full-blown regional war.
     
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