India's claimed pre-emptive attacks and Pakistan's response

Discussion in 'Central & South Asia' started by VCheng, Sep 30, 2016.

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  1. VCheng

    VCheng Officer Candidate

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    What are this forum's thoughts on what is happening between India and Pakistan these days after the claimed pre-emptive attacks across the LoC? Given what is verifiable, what are Pakistan's options for a response?
     
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  2. Technofox

    Technofox That Norwegian girl Staff Member Ret. Military Developer

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    At this point the only verifiable in this whole sage is that something happened. I don't want to speculate too much on what I think the actual events look like, rather then Pakistan's rejection of any incident other then a trade of artillery fire, and India's claim of "surgical strikes" against logistics staging areas, but not the camps themselves.

    As for Pakistan's response, it should be soft action and avoid further exacerbating an already tense situation. Move additional forces or defensive systems closer to the border, early warning platforms to increase monitoring of Indian movements around the border region. Framing the incident as a violation of Pakistan's sovereignty while rubbishing India's claims would give legitimacy to these moves. Perhaps a few joint exercises with China would help show India that Pakistan means business, but that's kind of an old trick that doesn't work much anymore.

    Pakistan doesn't have the diplomatic or economic clout to punish India, as shown by its poor reception at the UN following the Uri attack, and Pakistan can't muster enough international support to damage India's economy.

    Ratcheting up the tensions, returning fire or responding with militancy or special operations raids of their own is what got both sides into this situation in the first place, hardly a prudent response unless your intentions are to enflame tension even more.

    Soft action. Procurement, movement, exercises or just letting the tensions blow over without a response would be best. But we both know what's best isn't always what is in the Indo-Pak relation.
     
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  3. Pathfinder

    Pathfinder Lieutenant Colonel

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    How big could a war with India and Pakistan get? I mean both of them have nukes so I don't think any serious conflict would arise other than cross border incidents. If India invades Pakistan it has to face millions of men, same thing if Pakistan attacks India.

    I think most people in America are not following this too much. We only think about ISIL and Putin. :D
     
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  4. Technofox

    Technofox That Norwegian girl Staff Member Ret. Military Developer

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    I suppose it depends on whether or not the big powers decide to intervene or not, China especially with its defense ties to Pakistan. We may not see a repeat of the 1962 Sino-Indian War where the two sides fought against each other, but if Pakistan and India do become embroiled in a conflict, an alarmed China may move to create a further buffer within either nation and mobilize troops within that annexed area, like it did with Aksai Chin in 1962.

    [​IMG]

    During the 1971 Indo-Pak war the US and USSR almost came to blows over the conflict after Nixon sent Task force 74, a detachment of the 7th Navy lead by the Big E to intimidate India:

    [​IMG]

    The Soviet's responded by sending two nuclear armed submarines, a cruiser and a destroyer into the region to trail the American ships and show support for India.



    Today's politics differ from then with Russia and the US largely backing India, China is still firmly in Pakistan's corner, but no matter the differences, it's still got the potential to become a global event.
     
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2016
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  5. Spectre

    Spectre 2nd Lieutenant

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    @VCheng any response and counter-response will be driven by domestic compulsions

    Few things to note
    -impending retirement of Pakistani Chief
    - important state elections in India

    The crux of the matter is that when you separate facts from rhetoric appetite for war is less in Pakistan and even lesser in India for different reasons. For India a war would derail the growth engine with investors fleeing out and for Pakistan it would an existential crisis. Hence after the customary frothing we see very little material action.

    The only exception is that India will progressively raise the cost of support to proxies but tailored to stay within threshold pain acceptance of Pakistan and plenty of leeway for Pakistan to save face by denials and some cross border action of their own.

    When things turn serious - meaning nuclear, there are well established lines of communication and deescalation ladder involving direct military to military communication and political to military communication with politicians still being largely irrelevant to national security in Pakistan. There is also no dearth of interlocutors from USA, Russia, China and GCC all having significant skin in the game for varying reasons.

    Cheers.
     
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  6. Technofox

    Technofox That Norwegian girl Staff Member Ret. Military Developer

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    Yeah, I've noticed an interesting discussion where by Indians on the internet are saying they don't need to claim any such strike occurred, because it's not necessary or prudent to talk about special operations, even though such was announced publically by the Indian government in an obvious attempt to placate public views on retaliation following the Uri attack.

    But I've also noticed Pakistanis going out of their way to show no such attack took place. In their over zealousness, they are having the counter-effect of helping to prove one did. After all if nothing happened, why protest so much?

    I expect that there will be some near-term ratcheting up of the tension with both sides conducting military exercises, moving forces around, but I too expect that behind public eyes diplomats, either directly or through a third party mediator, are working diligently to dial down the tensions, but ultimately without addressing the underlying causes of them.

    Hawks and jingoists on the internet may want a conflict, and I've been privy to seeing a lot of bolstering about each nations military prowess and readiness, but I suspect each nations military and political leadership aren't as ready as keyboard warriors and cyber rangers.

    These moves are for public consumption. Heck, I even consider the recent raid by India to be for the same reason, assuming it actually took place.
     
    Last edited: Oct 1, 2016
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  7. Spectre

    Spectre 2nd Lieutenant

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    The veracity of raids are immaterial, you are right in assuming that announcement is the key to placating Indian electorate. Anyhow such raids are common across LoC, it's just that previous administration didn't deem it prudent enough to publicize them.

    You can now expect the policy to change in line with economic and diplomatic clout India acquires, better the performance economically more assertive will be the security policy.
     
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  8. HIT AND RUN

    HIT AND RUN Officer Candidate

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    Facts over fabricated stories


    1. This looks like a Bollywood movie script, we has the knowledge of LoC and terrain there.
    2. There had been cross-LoC fire originated and steered by India, and they baptized them as SIR G CAL, too good a story to be believed.
    3. Why the Narendra Modi government obtainable a routine exchange of fire as ‘surgical strikes’?
    4. Answer to the third point: The reason is that the Indian prime minister was under enormous pressure to live up to his own promises that his management would punish the Uri attackers.
    5. Modi has hurled a diplomatic violent against Pakistan ( with no such effects on us) taking a series of steps such as embargoing the Saarc summit, intimidating to review the water treaty as well as MFN status for Pakistan. But all those measures, he knew, would make little difference to Pakistan.
    6. So, Modi prerequisites face saving, by demanding that the Indian military carried out Sir G cal, Modi can now go to the public and hyper-nationalist media that he avenged the Uri attack.
    7. Elections are coming in Utar Pradesh next year, so he done that all theater to build his election campaign there.
    8. As, already it’s confirmed from your army sources as just like this ““There were no sir g cal ” Indian Minister of State for Information and Broadcasting Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore, himself an ex-Indian Army man.
    9. The fabricated story which you have earshot and nearsighted are baseless, 8 Indian soldiers killed and 1 captured, when Pakistan Army befittingly responded to the cease fire violation on the LOC by your army, and in conflicting faced heavy causalities’, and 1 captured alive, which is soldier from 37 Rashtriya Rifles, 22-year-old Indian soldier by the name Chandu Babulal Chohan was taken into custody by our Pakistani forces.
    10. India is irritating hard to divert global courtesy from the war crimes it is committing in Indian occupied Kashmir.

    So, that’s what all sort of drama of LOC violation from your side and terming as “ Sir G Cal”

    So, I think, these facts points a lot demonstrates that, Indian Public should be aware of these all facts, before giving yourself a fabricated and fake little time refreshments’ and false satisfaction on unsubstantiated news and drama, which can only be imagined in dreams or in Bollywood films and scripts, as just your fake news channels are telling or only you people can imagine, and whole world is not accepting and in denial mode, and only you chump people are and in living in misapprehension always LOL. Hope, you understand this time and revert back to that previous situation, where you were bashing each other including your modi and army.
     
    Last edited: Oct 2, 2016
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  9. HIT AND RUN

    HIT AND RUN Officer Candidate

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    After "Surgical Failure" of India, this is an ideal ground for Pakistan where Pakistan has all options open, it can play aggressively, softly, diplomatically or militarily - all with some justification of its actions.


    Indian Explanation of Kashmir Uprising Weakened
    The world media has just seen locations of “Indian attacks” on Pakistan’s side of LoC and found nothing. There are no terrorist camps neither anything is destroyed on the ground.

    That is an opportunity for Pakistan to expose Indian lies and reveal the actual reason of uprising in Kashmir. It was nevertheless illogical to assume 90 days of curfew in Kashmir was because of infiltrators crossing into India. Its time Pakistan should hit on Kashmir even hard.


    Diplomatic Offensive
    India lied to P5 + 25 additional countries giving Indian stance about "Surgical Strike". India has earned humiliation before all these countries. That is an opportunity where Pakistan can present them with its facts and gain space for its stance over Kashmir.


    License to more Cross Border Infiltration
    If there was an infiltration, Pakistan can use this opportunity to increase it further. Next time, even when India would claim there is cross-border infiltration going on, it would get less ears and lesser respect for its claims. The world has just seen real face of "truths" on the ground. So Pakistan has a space to gain against Indian weakness.

    A Military Operation
    Pakistan can actually use Indian lies back on them. India still hasn't officially backtracked from its "Surgical Falsehood" story - which means Pakistan has a “reason” to conduct a military operation in India and still be "seen justified". Pakistan however doesn't have a strategic reason to do so, but any military action in the future has already got its legitimacy.

    More Reasons to Focus on India
    Successful or not, India nevertheless tried to play a game with Pakistan and have tried to humiliate its forces - which all got busted. Pakistan after this has no reason to play soft on India. Diplomatic fronts are already stretched, armies already firing at each other, governments already refusing to participate in other's events.

    In this situation where there is nothing to lose, and having got all the reasons to respond, Pakistan can open additional lateral fronts against India. There can be a long list of what can be done and I leave this to your imaginations. Recalling, states in India are already warming up.

    India has lost respect within
    Modi government staged the drama as it wanted to prove a points that terrorists won’t go unpunished. Now it couldn’t. Terrorist’s camps were never found nor got they punished! It needed and operation to save its face and its face is saved not!

    Modi government is just temporary but Military stays doesn’t change after 5 years. But together with Modi government, Indian military has also lost respect. Firstly for their inability to conduct an operation against Pakistan and Secondly, for lying to public when they had failed.

    Pakistan has lost nothing
    That is the best part of this incident. Pakistan has gained credibility and avenues without losing a stage to India. In cross border firing, Pakistan has killed 8-14 Indian soldiers, destroyed 3 check posts and captured one soldier alive. Pakistan has no "itch" or "call" to do anything and it is satisfied with the response given in time.

    The biggest part is that people of Pakistan are back to their routine life, shops are open, schools are running, businesses are flourishing, and stock markets gaining up, political activity going on and Media is back on routine. On Indian side, its countrymen are still expecting a retaliation, stock market is under pressure and declining, Media is stuck on war rhetoric and a common man is confused if strike actually happened.

    What worse could India had imagined?
     
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  10. Technofox

    Technofox That Norwegian girl Staff Member Ret. Military Developer

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    Assertive doesn't always mean aggressive, so beyond the occasional cross border raid, which are dangerous given the amount of firepower in the region, what changes can we expect India to make?

    This is a very interesting discussion for me. Not only reading each side's take on the matter and regional politics, but because South Asia is my weakest area in terms of knowledge base.
     
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