India's claimed pre-emptive attacks and Pakistan's response

Discussion in 'Central & South Asia' started by VCheng, Sep 30, 2016.

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  1. VCheng

    VCheng Officer Candidate

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    What are this forum's thoughts on what is happening between India and Pakistan these days after the claimed pre-emptive attacks across the LoC? Given what is verifiable, what are Pakistan's options for a response?
     
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  2. Technofox

    Technofox That Norwegian girl Staff Member Ret. Military Developer

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    At this point the only verifiable in this whole sage is that something happened. I don't want to speculate too much on what I think the actual events look like, rather then Pakistan's rejection of any incident other then a trade of artillery fire, and India's claim of "surgical strikes" against logistics staging areas, but not the camps themselves.

    As for Pakistan's response, it should be soft action and avoid further exacerbating an already tense situation. Move additional forces or defensive systems closer to the border, early warning platforms to increase monitoring of Indian movements around the border region. Framing the incident as a violation of Pakistan's sovereignty while rubbishing India's claims would give legitimacy to these moves. Perhaps a few joint exercises with China would help show India that Pakistan means business, but that's kind of an old trick that doesn't work much anymore.

    Pakistan doesn't have the diplomatic or economic clout to punish India, as shown by its poor reception at the UN following the Uri attack, and Pakistan can't muster enough international support to damage India's economy.

    Ratcheting up the tensions, returning fire or responding with militancy or special operations raids of their own is what got both sides into this situation in the first place, hardly a prudent response unless your intentions are to enflame tension even more.

    Soft action. Procurement, movement, exercises or just letting the tensions blow over without a response would be best. But we both know what's best isn't always what is in the Indo-Pak relation.
     
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  3. Pathfinder

    Pathfinder Lieutenant Colonel

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    How big could a war with India and Pakistan get? I mean both of them have nukes so I don't think any serious conflict would arise other than cross border incidents. If India invades Pakistan it has to face millions of men, same thing if Pakistan attacks India.

    I think most people in America are not following this too much. We only think about ISIL and Putin. :D
     
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  4. Technofox

    Technofox That Norwegian girl Staff Member Ret. Military Developer

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    I suppose it depends on whether or not the big powers decide to intervene or not, China especially with its defense ties to Pakistan. We may not see a repeat of the 1962 Sino-Indian War where the two sides fought against each other, but if Pakistan and India do become embroiled in a conflict, an alarmed China may move to create a further buffer within either nation and mobilize troops within that annexed area, like it did with Aksai Chin in 1962.

    [​IMG]

    During the 1971 Indo-Pak war the US and USSR almost came to blows over the conflict after Nixon sent Task force 74, a detachment of the 7th Navy lead by the Big E to intimidate India:

    [​IMG]

    The Soviet's responded by sending two nuclear armed submarines, a cruiser and a destroyer into the region to trail the American ships and show support for India.



    Today's politics differ from then with Russia and the US largely backing India, China is still firmly in Pakistan's corner, but no matter the differences, it's still got the potential to become a global event.
     
    Last edited: Sep 30, 2016
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  5. Spectre

    Spectre 2nd Lieutenant

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    @VCheng any response and counter-response will be driven by domestic compulsions

    Few things to note
    -impending retirement of Pakistani Chief
    - important state elections in India

    The crux of the matter is that when you separate facts from rhetoric appetite for war is less in Pakistan and even lesser in India for different reasons. For India a war would derail the growth engine with investors fleeing out and for Pakistan it would an existential crisis. Hence after the customary frothing we see very little material action.

    The only exception is that India will progressively raise the cost of support to proxies but tailored to stay within threshold pain acceptance of Pakistan and plenty of leeway for Pakistan to save face by denials and some cross border action of their own.

    When things turn serious - meaning nuclear, there are well established lines of communication and deescalation ladder involving direct military to military communication and political to military communication with politicians still being largely irrelevant to national security in Pakistan. There is also no dearth of interlocutors from USA, Russia, China and GCC all having significant skin in the game for varying reasons.

    Cheers.
     
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