Is the DPRK Navy a Threat to USS Carl Vinson Strike Group

Discussion in 'Naval' started by Falcon, Apr 10, 2017.

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  1. Falcon

    Falcon Major Staff Member Social Media Team

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    The article is below, make up your minds. Is our carrier strike group under threat? I says yes but in the grand scheme of things no because we have extremely advanced countermeasures on our ships + complete air and naval superiority.

    http://www.hisutton.com/NK_Navy_threat2017.html
     
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  2. Kat

    Kat 1st Lieutenant

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    Sound analysis. I always like his stuff (great on substance, not so great on grammar:D).

    North Korea has 70 submarines. Most are not fit to travers open seas where US carriers and their strike group are likely to be, though they could harass the US if it ports in South Korea, but I think it's more likely they port in Japan instead. Safer that way.

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    North Korea has modern (relatively so) anti-ship missiles, but they lack over-the-horizon targeting and tracking. Some missiles will use active homing, and while that'll allow them to find targets on their own, it'll also increase their ability to be tracked, as they're emitting noticeable emissions, but also defeated using electronic countermeasures, not to mention early detection means evasive maneuvers or kinetic countermeasures can be brought to bear.

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    North Korea has several larger ocean capable ships, but they're a very limited threat to US warships and can't sustain any exchange of fire. I feel Operation Praying Mantis offers a pretty clear parallel for how an exchange between a USN destroyer and carrier wing and a lightly armed frigate would play out,

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    It also needs to be said that the Western and Eastern Fleets can't support each other. That also limits their tactical effectiveness.

    The article notes that some asymmetric means can be employed by the North Koreans to help assuage some of their deficiencies, like using forward spotters or fishing vessels to spot and track targets. One other method that could be employed is disguised commercial vessels.

    Though they'd be searched during wartime and interdicted by the USN and allied navies, disguised fishing or commercial craft can be armed with weapons and sensors allowing them to either track or engage US, South Korean, Japanese or allied ships. Russia had a set of torpedo and active sonar armed fishing trawlers. The only thing real about these "fishing boats" is the spy equipment and armament. The fish hooks, lines, it's all a ruse.

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    A sonar I can understand for tracking large fish like Tuna, but twin torpedo tubes? Maybe for a whaler, but not a fishing trawler.

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    The USN has been quickly learning to counter them for prospective encounters in the Persian Gulf, but North Korea's fanatical, willing to die (as has been seen in the past during special forces insertions into the South) force could make use of fast suicide boats as well. The USN can deal with some, but a full on swarm or assault would overwhelm even the most protected ships in the US Navy today.

    The LTTE made use of explosive boats during the Sri Lankan Civil War, scoring several kills.

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    North Korea's Navy doesn't represent much of a threat to the United States. Out in open waters, only North Korea's Romeos really have the range needed to harass the United States, but lack modernization and are old, noisy and slow submarines. But North Korea isn't helpless either and it can leverage numerous asymmetrical methods to level the playing field, although ultimately the USN, JMSDF and ROKN are expected to come out on top.
     
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  3. YarS

    YarS Lieutenant Colonel

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    It depend from scenario you want to play.
    For example: Korean War 2.0
    Turn 1. US Strike group strike North Korea's T’oejo-dong base with conventional cruise missiles.

    North Korea strike Pearl Harbour base with cruise missiles CSS-N-1 with nuclear warheads from auxiliary cruiser.

    Turn 2: Angried US command becomes predictable and send USS Carl Vinston on the shortest way, were are already trap from DPRK's "Whiskeys" and "Romeo", waiting without turning on engines. Sudden attack and crews of US Strike group feed crabs.
     
  4. Kat

    Kat 1st Lieutenant

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    I have a hard time believing any North Koreans ship could get within 80 kilometers of Pearl Harbor without being interdicted in the SCS, Sea of Japan or any number of bases in East Asia.

    North Korea is a full 7500 kilometers from Hawaii, and given the Eastern Pacific is heavily monitored by China, the US, South Korea, Japan and various other parties, some of whom do already interdict North Korean Shipping, I find it's very unlikely any North Korean ship could get within the 80km range of a CCS-N-1.

    This vessel was impounded in Panama for smuggling weapons.

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    This one was boarded by Spanish Special Forces for smuggling SCUD missiles. North Korean ships are routinely searched for banned items and weapons shipments.

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    If that scenario was to play out with cruise missiles the P-5 would be a more reliable choice, though it still needs to get within 500km of Hawaii, which gives the USN a long time to track and interdict any North Korean vessel.

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    It's big and Hawaii is not undefended. The USN's Missile Testing range is located in the state, which tests SM-3, THAAD, SM-6 and a host of other weapons.

    The North's submarines aren't likely to have the range to put Hawaii within range, they're barely expected to be able to hit Guam. The North's missile technology is also unreliable, so it's very much in doubt that an SSB carrying one or two nuclear armed missiles could A) reach Hawaii B) successfully strike it.

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    The US once planned to arm the Albany Class Cruiser with the Polaris Ballistic Missile, and space was retained on the ships just in case, but this was never operationally used. Perhaps North Korea could arm one of its surface ships with a ballistic missile too?

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    I have doubts North Korea could get a ship close enough to use a cruise missile with the amount of eyes watching the Western Pacific, especially North Korean boats travelling towards US territory.
     
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  5. YarS

    YarS Lieutenant Colonel

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    @Kat auxiliary cruisers usually work under other countries flags.
     
  6. Pathfinder

    Pathfinder Lieutenant Colonel

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    @YarS as @Kat explained they cannot reach Hawaii, its simply too far. The best bet the DPRK has is to target US forces in East asia with their ballistic missiles as for US naval forces they have a KH-35 equivalent cruise missile that may have a range exceeding several hundred kilometers that could cause serious damage to several US ships.
    _75577206_missile_still.jpg
     
  7. Kat

    Kat 1st Lieutenant

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    I know, but any vessel going to or from North Korea is going to be under a lot of scrutiny, regardless of its flag.

    If North Korean personnel acquired or hired a foreign ship, and armed it in a third-party country they'd still have to smuggle a nuclear armed missile to where ever the ship was ported.

    Auxiliary cruiser, warship, it doesn't really matter. If it makes port in North Korea, is of North Korean origin, or gets too close to the United States without declaring its cargo or purpose it's going to be under a lot of watchful eyes.

    I really doubt North Korea could get within striking distance of Hawaii using cruise missile armed ships, which is why I suggested arming either large warships or merchant craft with ballistic missiles like the Albany Class Cruisers. That gives them standoff range, though if they ever got to or leave North Korea they'd still garner a lot of scrutiny due to embargoes, trade sanctions and a host of other restrictions on North Korea (any ship porting there is already suspected of sanctions busting).
     
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2017
  8. YarS

    YarS Lieutenant Colonel

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    Oh, my cuttie naive Chukcha's girl...
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    There are so many ways to cobweb your tracks on the sea.
     
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2017
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