UNCLOS Decision; What will China do?

Discussion in 'East Asia & The Pacific' started by Cossack25A1, Jun 4, 2016.

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  1. Cossack25A1

    Cossack25A1 1st Lieutenant

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    South China Sea fears grow before tribunal rules on disputed islands
    Julian Borger World affairs editor

    Sunday 29 May 2016 16.24 BST
    Last modified on Sunday 29 May 2016 21.49 BST


    China already says it will reject ruling, fanning west’s fears of construction surge in islands and reefs in busy trade route

    Fears are growing that there will be a sharp rise in tensions in the South China Sea in the next few weeks after an international tribunal delivers a ruling on disputed islands and reefs that Beijing has said it will reject.

    Western officials say they fear China will react to the ruling of the international tribunal for the law of the sea, which is expected to side with the Philippines, by raising the stakes in the busy trade route, expanding its land reclamation and construction activities to reefs in the Scarborough Shoal, close to Manila.

    The White House is under pressure from the top US commander in the Pacific and some in Congress to take a tougher line with Beijing and carry out more military patrols close to China’s fortified islands, where there have already been close encounters between ships and planes from the two rival powers.

    Beijing, which argues the tribunal has no jurisdiction on the matter, has warned the US against escalating the conflict, saying it will defend itself if necessary.

    “Of course, when the ruling comes out our friends in Philippines and in the United States will preach that the tribunal has binding power, and that China must obey the result. But surely we will be firm in saying that the results are illegal, that the tribunal has no binding power and China will not accept the ruling,” said Liu Zhenmin, the Chinese deputy foreign minister who has been a lead negotiator on the issue.

    “The US knows about its own history in south-east Asia. We will oppose the US if it stirs up any conflict in south-east Asia. But if scenarios of the Korean war or Vietnam war are replayed we will have to defend ourselves.”

    Liu added that he did not think “things would go as badly as that”, but warned that any US attempt to contain China’s rising sea power was doomed to failure. “We have been saying to our American friends you cannot really circle China by having joint military exercises or building military bases – you were not able to do that 30 years ago, let alone now. China’s rise and development will not be held back by anyone,” he said.

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    More -> http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-grow-before-tribunal-ruling-disputed-islands

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  2. Cossack25A1

    Cossack25A1 1st Lieutenant

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    UN Permanent Court of Arbitration confirms verdict release date,PH versus China.
    June 16, 2016

    The Philippines will know the decision of the Permanent Court of Arbirtation under the United Nations is set to issue a ruling on the arbitration case between the Philippines and China.

    Wherein the tribunal enters its deliberations and intends to issue its verdict on July 7, 2016, a source said on Wednesday.

    Officials from the Department of Foreign Affairs are holding emergency meetings together with senior diplomats and foreign policy experts to establish a concrete strategy once the ruling has been handed down, the source who participated in the private meetings, said.

    The Philippines filed the memorial before The Hague-based Permanent court of Arbitration (PCA) in 2013 after Chinese ships refused to withdraw from the Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal. The shoal is within the Philippines'' exclusive economic zone.

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    More -> http://www.manilalivewire.com/2016/...onfirms-verdict-release-date-ph-versus-china/
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  3. Pathfinder

    Pathfinder Lieutenant Colonel

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    I think China will just continue with its current path, they don't care what the court thinks. They are building up a huge navy, artificial islands, and are spending diplomatic resources on this region. They have too much investment and they need access to it. There is no way they will budge.
     
  4. Cossack25A1

    Cossack25A1 1st Lieutenant

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    Well sooner or later, the Chinese people themselves will pay for the aggressive territorial policy of their CCP leaders, one way or another, because this sort of geopolitical attitude the CCP posses seems to be a good distraction for certain issues regarding China's economy and domestic issues.

    The CCP needs an enemy in the SCS for 1.4 billion Chinese to redirect their animosity away from the CCP, and they have found two: 89 million Vietnamese and 98 million Filipino people.
     
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  5. Pathfinder

    Pathfinder Lieutenant Colonel

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    There is that aspect to the issue but don't you think that the Chinese from a strategic perspective need to sort of such out into the sea? Especially when we are talking about Taiwan. Im trying to imagine myself being a strategist in Beijing.
     
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