UNCLOS Decision; What will China do?

Discussion in 'East Asia & The Pacific' started by Cossack25A1, Jun 4, 2016.

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  1. Cossack25A1

    Cossack25A1 1st Lieutenant

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    South China Sea fears grow before tribunal rules on disputed islands
    Julian Borger World affairs editor

    Sunday 29 May 2016 16.24 BST
    Last modified on Sunday 29 May 2016 21.49 BST


    China already says it will reject ruling, fanning west’s fears of construction surge in islands and reefs in busy trade route

    Fears are growing that there will be a sharp rise in tensions in the South China Sea in the next few weeks after an international tribunal delivers a ruling on disputed islands and reefs that Beijing has said it will reject.

    Western officials say they fear China will react to the ruling of the international tribunal for the law of the sea, which is expected to side with the Philippines, by raising the stakes in the busy trade route, expanding its land reclamation and construction activities to reefs in the Scarborough Shoal, close to Manila.

    The White House is under pressure from the top US commander in the Pacific and some in Congress to take a tougher line with Beijing and carry out more military patrols close to China’s fortified islands, where there have already been close encounters between ships and planes from the two rival powers.

    Beijing, which argues the tribunal has no jurisdiction on the matter, has warned the US against escalating the conflict, saying it will defend itself if necessary.

    “Of course, when the ruling comes out our friends in Philippines and in the United States will preach that the tribunal has binding power, and that China must obey the result. But surely we will be firm in saying that the results are illegal, that the tribunal has no binding power and China will not accept the ruling,” said Liu Zhenmin, the Chinese deputy foreign minister who has been a lead negotiator on the issue.

    “The US knows about its own history in south-east Asia. We will oppose the US if it stirs up any conflict in south-east Asia. But if scenarios of the Korean war or Vietnam war are replayed we will have to defend ourselves.”

    Liu added that he did not think “things would go as badly as that”, but warned that any US attempt to contain China’s rising sea power was doomed to failure. “We have been saying to our American friends you cannot really circle China by having joint military exercises or building military bases – you were not able to do that 30 years ago, let alone now. China’s rise and development will not be held back by anyone,” he said.

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    More -> http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-grow-before-tribunal-ruling-disputed-islands

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  2. Cossack25A1

    Cossack25A1 1st Lieutenant

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    UN Permanent Court of Arbitration confirms verdict release date,PH versus China.
    June 16, 2016

    The Philippines will know the decision of the Permanent Court of Arbirtation under the United Nations is set to issue a ruling on the arbitration case between the Philippines and China.

    Wherein the tribunal enters its deliberations and intends to issue its verdict on July 7, 2016, a source said on Wednesday.

    Officials from the Department of Foreign Affairs are holding emergency meetings together with senior diplomats and foreign policy experts to establish a concrete strategy once the ruling has been handed down, the source who participated in the private meetings, said.

    The Philippines filed the memorial before The Hague-based Permanent court of Arbitration (PCA) in 2013 after Chinese ships refused to withdraw from the Panatag (Scarborough) Shoal. The shoal is within the Philippines'' exclusive economic zone.

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    More -> http://www.manilalivewire.com/2016/...onfirms-verdict-release-date-ph-versus-china/
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  3. Pathfinder

    Pathfinder Lieutenant Colonel

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    I think China will just continue with its current path, they don't care what the court thinks. They are building up a huge navy, artificial islands, and are spending diplomatic resources on this region. They have too much investment and they need access to it. There is no way they will budge.
     
  4. Cossack25A1

    Cossack25A1 1st Lieutenant

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    Well sooner or later, the Chinese people themselves will pay for the aggressive territorial policy of their CCP leaders, one way or another, because this sort of geopolitical attitude the CCP posses seems to be a good distraction for certain issues regarding China's economy and domestic issues.

    The CCP needs an enemy in the SCS for 1.4 billion Chinese to redirect their animosity away from the CCP, and they have found two: 89 million Vietnamese and 98 million Filipino people.
     
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  5. Pathfinder

    Pathfinder Lieutenant Colonel

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    There is that aspect to the issue but don't you think that the Chinese from a strategic perspective need to sort of such out into the sea? Especially when we are talking about Taiwan. Im trying to imagine myself being a strategist in Beijing.
     
  6. Cossack25A1

    Cossack25A1 1st Lieutenant

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    Given Taiwan's current situation regarding their president, re-unification will not be easy but the economic relations between China and Taiwan makes it impossible for Taiwan to escape without suffering great loss, more economic pressure to Taiwan by Mainland China may keep Taiwan in line, unless the latter really starts to make trouble.

    The Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands had been milked by the CCP that many of the populace now hold negative views towards Japan... well according to the survey in Mainland China, which may be biased, forged or otherwise, but the CCP needs more to distract the local populace from issues regarding the domestic state of China, thus they look to SCS.

    From an economic perspective, whatever resources extracted in SCS will help PRC economy, though whether it is short-term or long-term solution is unknown. From a strategic security perspective, the SCS provides the area for the First Island Chain to repel any foreign warships, specifically the US military.
     
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  7. Cossack25A1

    Cossack25A1 1st Lieutenant

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    The verdict will be announced in July 12

    -> http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2016/06/29/arbitration-case-ruling-July-12.html

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    Ruling on PH arbitration case vs. China out on July 12
    By CNN Philippines Staff

    Updated 23:49 PM PHT Wed, June 29, 2016


    Metro Manila (CNN Philippines) — After three and a half years, a ruling will finally be out regarding an arbitration case which the Philippines filed against China over maritime rows in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea).

    The Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) at The Hague announced on Wednesday evening that it would issue its "award" or ruling on July 12 at approximately 11 a.m. CEST (5 p.m. PHT).

    In a statement, the PCA said the ruling would first be sent via e-mail to Manila and Beijing, along with a press release containing a summary of the decision. This will be in English and French — with an unofficial Mandarin Chinese translation.
     
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  8. Cossack25A1

    Cossack25A1 1st Lieutenant

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    Manila urged to put aside upcoming ruling
    Updated: 2016-07-04 08:16

    By Zhang Yunbi and Wujiao(China Daily)


    Sources: China won't resume negotiations on disputes based on tribunal decision

    China will not resume negotiations with the Philippines about disputes in the South China Sea if the discussions are based on the ruling of an arbitral tribunal in The Hague, according to sources.

    The negotiations have been stalled for years, and the tribunal is due to announce its ruling on July 12.

    The sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, are close to the issues between the two countries. The tribunal is in charge of the arbitration process that was launched unilaterally by the Philippines against China in 2013.

    Many observers have voiced hopes that the chilly relations between Beijing and Manila will end after Rodrigo Duterte took office as the 16th Philippine president on Thursday.

    "Manila must put aside the result of the arbitration in a substantive approach," one of the sources said.

    The sources also said Beijing is ready to start negotiations on issues such as joint development and cooperation in scientific research if the new government puts the tribunal's ruling aside before returning to the table for talks.

    China has rejected being part of the compulsory arbitral proceedings partly because the case involves sovereignty and maritime delimitation, which it declared in 2006 are issues that are not subject to any third-party arbitration.

    Although the outgoing Philippine government said it had exhausted all diplomatic approaches before seeking arbitration, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said Manila did not embark on any serious two-way negotiations over the claims it had raised with the tribunal.

    Wilson Lee Flores, an analyst and columnist for the Philippine Star newspaper, said he expects "more pragmatism and bilateral diplomacy to prevail in the Duterte government's dealings with China, instead of the past six years of confrontations".

    Normalizing bilateral relations with China would help to balance the Philippines' foreign policy with its traditional ally the United States, Flores said.

    Li Guoqiang, a senior researcher at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences' Institute of Chinese Borderland Studies, said: "For all the disputes concerning the South China Sea, negotiation is the only choice and the only viable approach. Confrontation will never help to resolve the South China Sea issue."

    Li said that no matter how the tribunal rules, he believes the situation will not go into free fall, but that the decision will possibly lead to some "new chaos".

    "No matter how the new president acts on the ruling, diplomatic negotiation is second to none. Using the ruling as a condition for resuming diplomatic consultations will not be viable," Li said.

    Zhu Feng, professor and executive director at Nanjing University's China Center for Collaborative Studies of the South China Sea, said it will be "a very important and ideal start" if the new Philippine government repairs ties with China.

    He said this will be the case if it "effectively manages in a reasoned manner the impact brought by the ruling on the existing bilateral disputes between China and the Philippines".

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    More -> http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/world/2016-07/04/content_25953433.htm
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    I think it is a bad idea for the Philippine government to ignore UNCLOS decision in exchange for a bilateral negotiations with China, which is clearly have the Philippines in a disadvantage position - what's the point of having Chinese investors going here to the Philippines if the CCP is threatening the PH territory by creating military-purpose fake islands and forcing us to adopt a statement that SCS belongs to China alone?

    It is also more disturbing that it seems some of President Duterte's statements in regards to China starts to sound like "appeasement".
     
    Last edited: Jul 4, 2016
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  9. Cossack25A1

    Cossack25A1 1st Lieutenant

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    Post arbitration and it seems the Chinese authorities are ignoring it.

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    Chinese vessel blocks Pinoy fishermen in Scarborough Shoal
    Chiara Zambrano, ABS-CBN News

    Posted at Jul 14 2016 05:56 PM | Updated as of Jul 14 2016 06:12 PM


    Filipino fishermen are still not allowed to fish in the waters of Scarborough Shoal, even after an international court backed the maritime case filed by the Philippines against China.

    ABS-CBN's News team joined Filipino fishermen in their attempt to enter the area.

    They were met by a Chinese fishing vessel, which followed them and stopped them from entering the area around Scarborough Shoal.

    Another Chinese fishing blocked the entrance of Bajo de Masinloc, one of the traditional fishing grounds of the Filipinos living near the area.

    The Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) on Tuesday ruled in favor of the Philippines' arguments for maritime entitlements over the West Philippine Sea, dealing a major legal blow to China's claims in the area rich in seafood and other resources.

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    More -> http://news.abs-cbn.com/news/07/14/16/chinese-vessel-blocks-pinoy-fishermen-in-scarborough-shoal
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  10. Cossack25A1

    Cossack25A1 1st Lieutenant

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    It is quite disgusting on how the Chinese now attempts to force Filipinos into an "uprising mode" by revealing the financial expenses when the Philippine government filed the case in the PCA.

    Seriously, what is it that Chinese Communist population want? Because they are like a fat, spoiled, only-child that violently cries just to get what it wants.

    What we Filipinos want is to be able to explore and exploit thew resources on the PH EEZ without being threatened by the Chinese Coast Guard so that we can use those resources to fuel the PH economy once we have the sufficient investments, as well as to prevent Philippine fishing industry from dying, but it seems the CCP wants us to be 100% tied to their economic system that we won't be able to develop properly and to kill our fishing investment... and probably blame us if someone took notice on why some of the endangered species disappeared in that sea area.


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    Spotlight: Manila's expenses for South China Sea arbitration should be made public
    Source: Xinhua | 2016-07-29 11:53:15
    Editor: huaxia


    BEIJING, July 29 (Xinhua) -- The great expenses for the South China Sea arbitration unilaterally initiated by the former Philippine government should be made public, as some Filipinos are already questioning the source of the money.

    In 2013, the Benigno Aquino III administration unilaterally filed a case on the South China Sea dispute between the Philippines and China. An ad hoc arbitral tribunal set up at Manila's request issued a highly controversial and biased award on July 12, denying China's long-standing historic rights in the South China Sea.

    Questions about how much money has been spent on the arbitration, paid by whom and to whom, have not only sparked hot debates in the Philippines, but also drawn attention worldwide.

    It had cost Manila 30 million U.S. dollars to merely pay off legal fees and expenses of lawyers who prepared the case against China, Rigoberto Tiglao, former spokesperson and head of presidential office for former Philippine President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, wrote in an article published in mid-July by the Manila Times.

    This prompted a question, raised openly three days later by former senator Francisco S. Tatad, about the real cost of the arbitration. He suspected that the former Philippine government hid the truth from its nationals.

    The government "never told the public how much the arbitration would cost the Filipino taxpayers. The Constitution provides that no money shall be paid out of the Treasury except in pursuance of an appropriation made by law, yet no appropriation has been disclosed for this particular purpose," he wrote to the Manila Times.

    "How much then is it? Are any foreign donors involved?" he asked.

    "The U.S. Central Intelligence Agency or its State Department should reimburse us," said Tiglao, suggesting that the arbitration case provides an excuse for the United States to interfere in the South China Sea.

    Looking back, The Hague-based Permanent Court of Arbitration (PCA) charged the arbitral tribunal for the South China Sea case 2.85 million euros (3.16 million dollars ) for the secretarial service.

    This was a sum all paid by Manila, including the share supposed to have been borne by Beijing, which had insisted on a stance of non-acceptance of and non-participation in the arbitration.

    This cost is supposed to cover human labor and rents for office and office equipment, as well as possible payments to the five members of the arbitral tribunal, said Wang Hanling, a Chinese maritime law expert at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

    A gross sum of partial expenses can be traced on the basis of open data, Wang said. For instance, charges of secretarial service include openly-priced human labor, a single payment of 2,000 euros (2,218 dollars) for registration, and daily rent of office equipment at 1,750 euros (1,940 dollars), among other things, and the hearings room is charged at 1,000 euros (1,109 dollars) per day.

    "Such estimations can lead to a conclusion that the arbitrators pocketed largely the money Manila paid," Wang wrote in an article published on July 28 in China's Global Times newspaper.

    The PCA charges are the only part made public of the expenses of the arbitration case, Wang said.

    Setting a rare precedent in the history of international justice and arbitration by sweepingly siding with Manila's claims, the arbitral award has been widely questioned and challenged in the world. What's worse, it indicates something fishy about the arbitrators, Wang said.

    Wang believes that certain countries such as the United States and Japan, and some organizations, probably have invested a great deal of money and resources in the South China Sea arbitration case, citing the first payment by some U.S. institutions.

    However, what Manila finally gained from the arbitration case is nothing but a scrap of paper, instead of benefits, he said.

    In this regard, it is necessary for Manila to open the records of expenses for the arbitration, so as to respond to the questions raise by the Philippine people and address the concerns of the international community, Wang concluded.

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    More -> http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-07/29/c_135549291.htm
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    Last edited: Jul 31, 2016
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