Xi Jinping wants stronger response in regards to SCS issue

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  1. Cossack25A1

    Cossack25A1 1st Lieutenant

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    'Give them a bloody nose': Xi pressed for stronger South China Sea response
    World
    Sun Jul 31, 2016 10:29pm EDT
    BEIJING | By Ben Blanchard and Benjamin Kang Lim



    China's leadership is resisting pressure from elements within the military for a more forceful response to an international court ruling against Beijing's claims in the South China Sea, sources said, wary of provoking a clash with the United States.

    China refused to participate in the case overseen by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.

    It denounced the emphatic July 12 ruling in favor of the Philippines as a farce that had no legal basis and part of an anti-China plot cooked up in Washington.

    The ruling has been followed in China by a wave of nationalist sentiment, scattered protests and strongly worded editorials in state media.

    So far, Beijing has not shown any sign of wanting to take stronger action. Instead, it has called for a peaceful resolution through talks at the same time as promising to defend Chinese territory.

    But some elements within China's increasingly confident military are pushing for a stronger - potentially armed - response aimed at the United States and its regional allies, according to interviews with four sources with close military and leadership ties.

    "The People's Liberation Army is ready," one source with ties to the military told Reuters.

    "We should go in and give them a bloody nose like Deng Xiaoping did to Vietnam in 1979," the source said, referring to China's brief invasion of Vietnam to punish Hanoi for forcing Beijing's ally the Khmer Rouge from power in Cambodia.

    The sources requested anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.

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    More -> http://www.reuters.com/article/us-southchinasea-ruling-china-insight-idUSKCN10B10G
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  2. Pathfinder

    Pathfinder Lieutenant Colonel

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    The question at this point is not a matter of if but a matter of when. We need to try and calculate when they will make their first serious kinetic military move. Could it be after the US elections?
     
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  3. Cossack25A1

    Cossack25A1 1st Lieutenant

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    According to National Interest website, it could be between the day after the G-20 Summit and the days before the US Presidential election.

    http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/china-will-hold-its-fire-the-south-china-sea-—-until-17201


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    China Will Hold its Fire in the South China Sea — Until September
    Harry J. Kazianis

    July 30, 2016


    Over at the Washington Post, acclaimed columnist David Ignatius takes on the always tumultuous tides roiling the South China Sea. Ignatius points out the scope of Beijing’s defeat in the recent international court case brought by Manila, noting that while most that follow professionally this important part of the world were of the collective mind China would lose in some fashion, but no one (myself included) thought Beijing would lose so badly. Score one for the “rules-based international order.”

    But it’s what happens next that is key. And to be clear, China will respond — and respond with a vengeance.

    However, as Ignatius points out, at least for now, while Beijing has only stepped up the rhetoric and seems content to take selfies of its bombers over what could be its next island reclamation project in the South China Sea, the hotly contested Scarborough Shoal, China is not exactly in a position to respond — at least not right now. But come September, the timing could not be any better for what could be a big reaction that the world might not even notice.


    G-20 Summit + A Presidential Election = A Time of Troubles for Asia:

    Why the delayed response you ask? The timing for a forceful reaction, at least in a strategic sense, is far from ideal.

    Remember, Beijing is set to host the G-20 Summit for the first time on September 4-5 in the city of Hangzhou. Always looking to enhance its status as a rising superpower as well as play the part that China is the ultimate partner nation and never one to start trouble, Beijing will follow a carefully well scripted playbook in the South China Sea — lots of fiery talk and signaling, but no escalatory steps for the time being. China would not want to risk having any drama at this prestigious gathering — beyond what could occur already when it comes to tensions in Asia. Why rock the boat and lose face? Now is simply not the time for a squabble. I would argue Beijing has every incentive to hold its fire until after the summit.

    But the plot thickens from there, adding more reason to the argument that Beijing is holding back for the right time to respond. Why not take advantage of the daily media drama show that is the US Presidential election cycle and save any escalatory moves in the South China Sea so they simply get buried in the news cycle?

    There could not be a better time to start trouble in the South China Sea, at a time when the United States—truly the only nation that could really deter Beijing from troublemaking — will be very much distracted in the business of selecting its next Commander-in-Chief. American as well as global media will be very much focused on the battles to come between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton, whether it’s the upcoming presidential debates or the latest scandal of the day.

    Even if China were to declare a South China Sea Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) or start reclamation work at Scarborough Shoal, there is a good chance it would get much less coverage when the world is following the every tweet, speech and controversy over the race for the White House. So for China, that might just be the best time to pounce, when the world’s collective gaze is simply somewhere else.

    We must also consider this: with a change of power looming in America and uncertainty over who will win as well as additional uncertainty over what their positions will be when it comes to Asia, Beijing might gamble now is the time to move. It might also feel it could get away with a little more drama now against an Obama administration that wants to leave its time in office not embroiled in a crisis in Asia. As they say, timing is everything.

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    More details in the link provided at the top.
     
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